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Yesterday's Problems

Hopefully our clients realize that every position we selected for their portfolio is extensively vetted via an exhaustive process; a process that not only justifies each position's addition but continues to justify its holding. So it is easy to see the relatively few investments that meet our high standards, but impossible to even guess the myriad of ideas that fail, let alone why (which is not always that the investment fails fundamentally, but that we are unwilling to overpay for an otherwise good idea). One of the biggest challenges we face is when popular or trendy ideas don't make the cut. So-called "new" ideas seem to be most prevalent when the stock market is at extremes--near peaks and troughs. At peaks, these sexy-sounding ideas claim to make you ever wealthier…or allow you to catch up after you failed to participate in the gains. At troughs, they often claim to save you from further losses. Ironically, they have two things in common: 1. They often come with the moniker of "alternative investment", and; 2. They solve yesterday's problems…at best! Over my decades of experience there have been a few times that we missed a knowable opportunity. But for every one of those missed opportunities there were dozens of instances that we avoided negative if not catastrophic consequences. We are far more proud of the latter than we regret the former!

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.